The State of Russia's Economy
This overview brings eight indicators into one account of Russia's economy. Russia's budget deficit, oil and gas budget revenues, and liquid reserve fund describe the federal finances: the revenues are the monitor's “driver”, the deficit its “burn rate”, and the reserve fund its “buffer”. Russia's M2 money supply growth, inflation rate, and overdue corporate receivables trace pressure through money, prices, and company accounts. The regional budget balance and rail freight volumes add the finances below federal level and a physical measure of goods moving through the economy. Each series is scored against registered pre-war anchors; most level measures use 2021 as their comparison year, while the rate measures use registered pre-war averages. That keeps the focus on change from the pre-war economy rather than on a flattering comparison with a weak recent year. This is not a complete account of the Russian economy; it is the defined set of fiscal and financial-stress indicators that this monitor tracks. For the same evidence framed around how the war is financed, see the war economy page.
Data as of Nov 5, 2026.
Current overall index
STRESS · 46/100Where each indicator stands
- Oil and gas money coming in55% (of the pre-war level · trouble line — 50%) · data Sep 2026 · 10/100 vs pre-war · no change from last month
- Rainy-day fund left$45.0 bn (liquid · the trouble line is $20 bn) · data Sep 2026 · 27/100 vs pre-war · no change from last month
- How fast they burn cash3.2% (of GDP deficit (12-month) · the trouble line is 10%) · data Sep 2026 · 66/100 vs pre-war · no change from last month
- Are the regions staying afloat?−₽1.47 trn (consolidated regional balance over 12 months · the trouble line is −₽2.5 trn) · data Sep 2026 · 33/100 vs pre-war · no change from last month
- Are firms paying each other?1.96× (of the pre-war level · trouble line — 2×) · data Aug 2026 · 4/100 vs pre-war · no change from last month
- Prices in shops+6.3% (vs last year · the trouble line is +40%) · data Sep 2026 · 95/100 vs pre-war · no change from last month
- How fast they print money+13.2% (vs last year · the trouble line is +30%) · data Sep 2026 · 84/100 vs pre-war · no change from last month
- Stuff moving by rail86% (of the pre-war level · trouble line — 80%) · data Oct 2026 · 32/100 vs pre-war · no change from last month
Key changes this month
No material changes recorded this month.
Russia's federal finances
The budget deficit, oil and gas budget revenues, and the liquid reserve fund show how Russia finances federal spending.
- Russia's budget deficit
Russia's rolling federal budget balance as a share of GDP over the past year, calculated from the finance ministry's monthly reports.
- Russian oil and gas budget revenues
Rolling oil and gas budget revenue over the past year, from monthly finance ministry data, adjusted for inflation and measured against the pre-war baseline.
- Russia's liquid National Wealth Fund
The liquid, spendable portion of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, tracked from the finance ministry's own monthly fund statement.
Domestic financial pressure
Inflation, M2 money supply growth, and overdue corporate receivables trace pressure through prices, money, and company balance sheets.
- Russia's inflation rate
Russia's annual consumer-price inflation rate, from the national statistics agency's monthly series.
- Russia's M2 money supply growth
Year-on-year growth of Russia's broad money supply, from the central bank's own published series.
- Russia's overdue corporate receivables
The stock of overdue invoices Russian companies have failed to pay each other, from the national statistics agency's monthly economic report.
Real-economy signals
Rail freight volumes and the regional budget balance add physical activity and subnational finances to the national picture.
- Russia's rail freight volumes
Rolling rail freight tonnage over the past year on Russia's state railway network, a physical-economy signal that is harder to manage than a published ratio.
- Russia's regional budget balance
The consolidated balance of Russia's regional government budgets over the past rolling year, from the finance ministry's own monthly reporting.
Latest analysis of Russia's economy
How The Fuse measures this
Background reading
Frequently asked questions
- What is the current state of Russia's economy?
- The Fuse's overall index reads 46/100 as of Nov 5, 2026 and is in the STRESS zone. It is built from the eight indicators above.
- What is Russia's current budget deficit?
- Russia's rolling 12-month federal budget deficit is 3.2% of GDP, data as of Sep 2026.
- How much of the liquid National Wealth Fund remains?
- Russia's liquid National Wealth Fund stood at $45.0 bn as of Sep 2026.
- How dependent is Russia's budget on oil and gas revenue?
- Russian oil and gas budget revenues make up one of the monitor's eight tracked indicators; the latest 12-month reading is 55% of their registered pre-war level, with data as of Sep 2026.
- What economic indicators does The Fuse monitor?
- The Fuse tracks eight indicators: Oil and gas money coming in, Rainy-day fund left, How fast they burn cash, Are the regions staying afloat?, Are firms paying each other?, Prices in shops, How fast they print money, Stuff moving by rail.