The State of Russia's Economy
This overview brings eight indicators into one account of Russia's economy. Russia's budget deficit, oil and gas budget revenues, and liquid reserve fund describe the federal finances: the revenues are the monitor's “driver”, the deficit its “burn rate”, and the reserve fund its “buffer”. Russia's M2 money supply growth, inflation rate, and overdue corporate receivables trace pressure through money, prices, and company accounts. The regional budget balance and rail freight volumes add the finances below federal level and a physical measure of goods moving through the economy. Each series is scored against registered pre-war anchors; most level measures use 2021 as their comparison year, while the rate measures use registered pre-war averages. That keeps the focus on change from the pre-war economy rather than on a flattering comparison with a weak recent year. For the same evidence framed around how the war is financed, see the war economy page.
Russia's federal finances
The budget deficit, oil and gas budget revenues, and the liquid reserve fund show how Russia finances federal spending.
- Russia's budget deficit
Russia's rolling federal budget balance as a share of GDP over the past year, calculated from the finance ministry's monthly reports.
- Russian oil and gas budget revenues
Rolling oil and gas budget revenue over the past year, from monthly finance ministry data, adjusted for inflation and measured against the pre-war baseline.
- Russia's liquid reserve fund
The liquid, spendable portion of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, tracked from the finance ministry's own monthly fund statement.
Domestic financial pressure
Inflation, M2 money supply growth, and overdue corporate receivables trace pressure through prices, money, and company balance sheets.
- Russia's inflation rate
Russia's annual consumer-price inflation rate, from the national statistics agency's monthly series.
- Russia's M2 money supply growth
Year-on-year growth of Russia's broad money supply, from the central bank's own published series.
- Russia's overdue corporate receivables
The stock of overdue invoices Russian companies have failed to pay each other, from the national statistics agency's monthly economic report.
Real-economy signals
Rail freight volumes and the regional budget balance add physical activity and subnational finances to the national picture.
- Russia's rail freight volumes
Rolling rail freight tonnage over the past year on Russia's state railway network, a physical-economy signal that is harder to manage than a published ratio.
- Russia's regional budget balance
The consolidated balance of Russia's regional government budgets over the past rolling year, from the finance ministry's own monthly reporting.