What this model would have said, month by month
We ran the current rules over the full war period. The point is not that the model is right — it's that you can see exactly when it would have been wrong, and by how much.
◆ CAVEATS — READ FIRST
- Hindsight bias: thresholds were registered in August 2026 with knowledge of 2022–26 data. Earlier rows are illustration, not validation.
- rzd and power have no fetchable archive — null (unknown) throughout
- arrears (Fedresurs) quarterly data starts 2024-Q1 — null before
- OFZ evaluated on completed quarters with a published HTML plan (2026-Q1..2026-Q3; 2025 and earlier plans are DOC-only attachments — null, no guess)
- deficit interval degenerates to the actual rolling-12 value; live runs use analyst ranges
- GDP and FX are implied from the Minfin NWF file, not external estimates
20222023202420252026
| MONTH | REACHED LINK | VERDICT | WORST-CASE HORIZON | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | 4 links unknown from here |
| 2022-02 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-03 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-04 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-05 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-06 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-07 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-08 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-09 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-10 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-11 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2022-12 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2023-01 | — | QUIET | ~22.3 mo | |
| 2023-02 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~14.6 mo | |
| 2023-03 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~12.5 mo | |
| 2023-04 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~12.1 mo | |
| 2023-05 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~10.9 mo | |
| 2023-06 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~10.1 mo | |
| 2023-07 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~11.5 mo | |
| 2023-08 | — | QUIET | ~13.4 mo | |
| 2023-09 | — | QUIET | ~15.2 mo | |
| 2023-10 | — | QUIET | ~17.3 mo | |
| 2023-11 | — | QUIET | ~17.7 mo | |
| 2023-12 | — | QUIET | ~16.9 mo | |
| 2024-01 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~18.6 mo | |
| 2024-02 | — | QUIET | ~34.5 mo | |
| 2024-03 | — | QUIET | ~30.6 mo | |
| 2024-04 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | data improves: 3 links unknown from here |
| 2024-05 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2024-06 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2024-07 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2024-08 | — | QUIET | ~32.2 mo | |
| 2024-09 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2024-10 | — | QUIET | >36 mo | |
| 2024-11 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~31.8 mo | |
| 2024-12 | — | QUIET | ~24.4 mo | |
| 2025-01 | — | QUIET | ~13.2 mo | |
| 2025-02 | — | QUIET | ~9.4 mo | |
| 2025-03 | — | QUIET | ~8.6 mo | |
| 2025-04 | — | QUIET | ~7.6 mo | |
| 2025-05 | — | QUIET | ~7.5 mo | |
| 2025-06 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~5.9 mo | |
| 2025-07 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~7.9 mo | |
| 2025-08 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~6.8 mo | |
| 2025-09 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~6.4 mo | 4 links unknown from here |
| 2025-10 | — | QUIET | ~6.6 mo | |
| 2025-11 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~6.6 mo | |
| 2025-12 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~6.9 mo | |
| 2026-01 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~8.7 mo | |
| 2026-02 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~8.8 mo | |
| 2026-03 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~7.4 mo | |
| 2026-04 | 1 | SINGLE SIGNAL | ~5.7 mo | data improves: 3 links unknown from here |
| 2026-05 | — | QUIET | ~5.1 mo | |
| 2026-06 | — | QUIET | ~4.8 mo | |
| 2026-07 | — | QUIET | ~5.4 mo | |
| 2026-08 | — | QUIET | ~5.8 mo |