The whole chain, plotted
The line is the reconstructed monthly history the backtest runs on (2022 onward, primary sources only); dots are values our fetchers actually pulled; the dashed line is the registered trouble line. Gaps are gaps — we never interpolate.
Oil money coming in● HOLDING
OIL & GAS BUDGET REVENUES · LINK 1 · CLASS 2now +18.6% vs last year · the trouble line is -25% · detailsCan they still borrow?▲ BURNING
OFZ PLACED / QUARTERLY PLAN · LINK 2 · CLASS 2now 0.7% of this quarter's borrowing plan sold · the trouble line is 20% · detailsRainy-day fund left● HOLDING
LIQUID NWF · LINK 3 · CLASS 2now $46.4 bn liquid · the trouble line is $20 bn · detailsHow fast they burn cash● HOLDING
BUDGET DEFICIT, % GDP (ANNUALIZED) · LINK 4 · CLASS 3now 3.3% of GDP deficit (12-month) · the trouble line is 10% · detailsBusinesses going under● HOLDING
ARREARS / BANKRUPTCIES (TRANSMISSION TO REAL SECTOR) · LINK 5 · CLASS 1now 0.74× the pre-war (2021) pace · the trouble line is 1.3× · detailsPrices in shops● HOLDING
ANNUAL INFLATION · LINK 6 · CLASS 3now +6.0% vs last year · the trouble line is +40% · detailsHow fast they print money● HOLDING
M2 MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH · LINK 6 · CLASS 3now +13.2% vs last year · the trouble line is +30% · detailsStuff moving by rail● HOLDING
RZD RAIL LOADING · LINK 7 · CLASS 2now -0.8% vs last year · the trouble line is -8% · detailsElectricity being used● HOLDING
POWER GENERATION · LINK 7 · CLASS 2now -1.4% vs last year · the trouble line is -5% · detailsReconstruction caveats are on the track-record page; per-fetch raw fragments and parse failures are on each indicator page.