How Russia Is Financing the War
This page reads eight economic indicators through the financing of Russia's war. Russian oil and gas budget revenues are the budget's “driver”; Russia's budget deficit is the monitor's “burn rate” when spending exceeds receipts; and Russia's liquid reserve fund is the “buffer” available when revenue and borrowing fall short. The next part of the chain is domestic. Russia's M2 money supply growth helps show when state-owned banks expand credit to carry the deficit, while Russia's inflation rate records the pressure visible in consumer prices. Russia's overdue corporate receivables show unpaid invoices accumulating between companies. Russia's regional budget balance adds the finances of governments that depend heavily on federal transfers, and Russia's rail freight volumes provide a physical check on activity. No single series answers the financing question by itself; together they show which parts of the system are absorbing the burden. For the same eight indicators presented as a broad economic overview, see the economy page.
Russia's federal finances
The budget deficit, oil and gas budget revenues, and the liquid reserve fund show how Russia finances federal spending.
- Russia's budget deficit
Russia's rolling federal budget balance as a share of GDP over the past year, calculated from the finance ministry's monthly reports.
- Russian oil and gas budget revenues
Rolling oil and gas budget revenue over the past year, from monthly finance ministry data, adjusted for inflation and measured against the pre-war baseline.
- Russia's liquid reserve fund
The liquid, spendable portion of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, tracked from the finance ministry's own monthly fund statement.
Domestic financial pressure
Inflation, M2 money supply growth, and overdue corporate receivables trace pressure through prices, money, and company balance sheets.
- Russia's inflation rate
Russia's annual consumer-price inflation rate, from the national statistics agency's monthly series.
- Russia's M2 money supply growth
Year-on-year growth of Russia's broad money supply, from the central bank's own published series.
- Russia's overdue corporate receivables
The stock of overdue invoices Russian companies have failed to pay each other, from the national statistics agency's monthly economic report.
Real-economy signals
Rail freight volumes and the regional budget balance add physical activity and subnational finances to the national picture.
- Russia's rail freight volumes
Rolling rail freight tonnage over the past year on Russia's state railway network, a physical-economy signal that is harder to manage than a published ratio.
- Russia's regional budget balance
The consolidated balance of Russia's regional government budgets over the past rolling year, from the finance ministry's own monthly reporting.