The Fuse.RUSSIA'S FISCAL BREAKDOWN MONITOR
▲ burning at link 2borrowing frozen · reserves cover 6–7 monthsAug 14, 2026

How long can Russia pay for its war?

6–7months
20252026worst-case runway, 2024·09 → 2026·08 · −2.6 mo over the past half-year
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the fire is at link 2: borrowingothers still holding

Russia can effectively no longer borrow — its bond auctions have collapsed. The last liquid reserves keep war financing orderly for about these months; beyond them it's the printing press, not a sudden stop.

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Updated Aug 14, 2026 · Russian Ministry of Finance dataEvery number links to a primary source. Forecasts like this have historically fired too early — see our track record.

The funding chain

money problems travel down this chain, link by link
1
Oil money coming in● HOLDING◦ BURNED EARLIER THIS YEAR
Up against a weak month last year.
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+18.6% vs last year · the trouble line is -25%minfin.gov.ru · data Jul 2026 · full history
2
Can they still borrow?▲ BURNINGTHE FIRE IS HERE
Effectively no — auctions are failing.
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0.7% of this quarter's borrowing plan sold · the trouble line is 20%minfin.gov.ru · data 2026 Q3 · full history
3
Still holding — this is what the hero number counts down.
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$46.4 bn liquid · the trouble line is $20 bnminfin.gov.ru · data Jun 2026 · full history
4
Fast, but below the trouble line.
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3.3% of GDP deficit (12-month) · the trouble line is 10%minfin.gov.ru · data Jul 2026 · full history
5
Fewer than before the war.
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0.74× the pre-war (2021) pace · the trouble line is 1.3×download.fedresurs.ru · data 2026 Q2 · full history
6
Prices in shops● HOLDING
High, but not runaway.
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+6.0% vs last year · the trouble line is +40%rosstat.gov.ru · data Jul 2026 · full history
Elevated war-normal — the printing-press detector.
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+13.2% vs last year · the trouble line is +30%cbr.ru · data Jun 2026 · full history
7
Slipping, still above the trouble line.
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-0.8% vs last year · the trouble line is -8%rollingstockworld.ru · data Jul 2026 · full history
Near normal.
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-1.4% vs last year · the trouble line is -5%rosstat.gov.ru · data Jun 2026 · full history

How long the money lasts

always a range — the width is honest uncertainty
Borrowing stays frozen← the scenario we're in now
5.8–6.7 mo
Borrowing limps along
11.6–13.4 mo
Borrowing recovers
29–33.4 mo
09182736 mo

How long the liquid reserve fund keeps war financing orderly under each borrowing assumption. Zero here is not "can't pay" — it is the point where financing moves to the printing press. No dates, no countdowns — how this is computed.

What changed this week

every change traces to a source you can click
EVENT · AUG 14, 2026 · LINK 2 — CAN THEY STILL BORROW?

Russia's bond auctions have effectively stopped

The finance ministry sold 0.7% of what it planned to borrow this quarter. If borrowing stays frozen, reserves cover 5.8–6.7 months.

source: minfin.gov.ru · data 2026 Q3
SHAREXTGFB
forecasts like this have fired early before — track record

Beyond the standing event above, no tracked field moved since the previous snapshot.

What Moscow hides

○ missing data is a signal, not a gap

What could change this number

  1. AUG 19, 2026Next OFZ auction day — another failed or skipped one keeps borrowing frozen; a normal one adds months back.
  2. EARLY SEPMonthly finance-ministry report — reserve fund, oil money and the deficit all update at once.
  3. MID-OCTQuarterly bankruptcy statistics — the chain's hardest-to-repaint link updates (suppressible only by a visible moratorium).
The Fuse — How long can Russia pay for its war?