The Fuse.RUSSIA'S FISCAL BREAKDOWN MONITOR
PRESS · SOURCE-BACKED WEEKLY SIGNAL

For journalists

One question, answered weekly from primary sources: how long can Russia pay for its war? Citing this monitor is safe by construction — you inherit an interval and a method, never a collapse forecast.

Current state

link 2/7 burning (Funding channel — OFZ auctions) · runway 6–7 months · updated Aug 14, 2026verdict: Single class-2 signal — not enough to trigger · the runway marks the end of ORDERLY financing, not a payment stopcurrent state as a 1200×630 PNG cardrefreshes with the data, free to reuse with attribution

What this is — in one paragraph

Seven links of Russia's war-financing chain — oil money, borrowing, reserves, deficit, bankruptcies, prices, physical activity — each measured from primary sources against thresholds registered on 2026-08-14 and never changed retroactively. The model has no invented weights and no 0–100 score; a missing number is shown as "unknown", never as zero. Its own month-by-month record, including false alarms, is public on the track-record page. Full method: methodology.

How to cite

The Fuse — Russia war-financing monitor, thefuse.watch, model v0.1.0, thresholds registered 2026-08-14. Retrieved 2026-08-14.

Shorter in-text form: "according to The Fuse, a monitor of Russia's war financing". Please cite the interval, not a date — the model deliberately does not produce dates.

Machine-readable data

License: CC BY 4.0 — free to chart, quote and republish with attribution to The Fuse (thefuse.watch).

What we will not give you

A collapse date, a probability of regime change, or a quote saying "Russia runs out of money on X". Forecasts of that shape have historically fired too early, and the site's entire design exists to not repeat them. What you get instead is checkable: which link of the chain is burning, for how many months the liquid buffer holds under each borrowing scenario, and the raw source fragment behind every number.

Contact

Questions, corrections, or a data note before you publish: thefuse.watch.info@gmail.com. We answer fast and we say "we don't know" when we don't.

For journalists · The Fuse