For journalists
One question, answered weekly from primary sources: how much harder is it for Russia to pay for its war than before it started? Citing this monitor is safe by construction — you inherit an index with published anchors, an interval, and a method, never a collapse forecast.
Current state
What this is — in one paragraph
Eight indicators of Russia's war financing — oil and gas money, the reserve fund, the federal deficit, regional budgets, unpaid invoices, inflation, the money supply and rail freight — each measured from primary sources against thresholds registered on 2026-08-14 and never changed retroactively. The headline strength index is an open formula — each indicator's distance between its pre-war baseline (100) and its registered trouble line (0), averaged without weights. A missing number is shown as "unknown", never as zero, and drops out of the average; because a component appearing or disappearing would then move the level by itself, each month's step is measured only over the components present in that month and the one before it. Its own month-by-month record, including false alarms, is public on the track-record page. Full method: methodology.
How to cite
The Fuse — Russia war-financing monitor, thefuse.watch, model v0.1.0, thresholds registered 2026-08-14. Retrieved 2026-10-01.Shorter in-text form: "according to The Fuse, a monitor of Russia's war financing". Please cite the interval, not a date — the model deliberately does not produce dates.
Machine-readable data
- /api/v1/state.json — the full current state: verdict, the strength index with its components, every indicator with value, threshold and source URL
- /api/v1/series/{id} — monthly CSV per indicator (oilgas nwf deficit regions receivables cpi m2 rzd)
- /en/rss.xml — new items only when something actually changed
License: CC BY 4.0 — free to chart, quote and republish with attribution to The Fuse (thefuse.watch).
What we will not give you
A collapse date, a probability of regime change, or a quote saying "Russia runs out of money on X". Forecasts of that shape have historically fired too early, and the site's entire design exists to not repeat them. What you get instead is checkable: how far each indicator sits from its pre-war level, what the eight of them average to, and the raw source fragment behind every number.
Contact
Questions, corrections, or a data note before you publish: thefuse.watch.info@gmail.com. We answer fast and we say "we don't know" when we don't.