On 19 August, at a meeting of the presidential council, Putin instructed the government to draw up a list of regions in an unstable financial position, to prepare with them programmes of financial and economic recovery lasting up to five years, and to distribute at least 100 bn roubles in balancing grants before the year is out.

Two accounts that do not contradict each other

Siluanov's report to the same meeting reads at first like good news: regional budget revenue is up 6% since the start of the year and has passed 15 trn roubles, income-tax revenue is up 10%, and profit-tax revenue 6%. As of 1 August, regional budgets had a balance of 170 bn roubles, with 36 regions running a surplus. Regional debt has fallen 115 bn since January to 3.3 trn roubles, or 17% of own revenue.

Vedomosti supplies the other picture: the number of regions running a budget deficit in the first quarter of 2026 rose to 56 from 46 a year earlier, and the largest deficits relative to revenue were in the Jewish Autonomous Region (50.5%), Kemerovo (50%), Vologda (32.9%) and Komi (32.7%).

Both are true. One describes the total, the other the distribution.

What is actually keeping regional budgets afloat

The answer is in Siluanov's own report, and it is not revenue. Three federal measures are keeping regional budgets afloat.

First, writing off two thirds of the debt on budget loans:

“The volume of such write-offs came to 518 bn roubles. 76 regions made use of this instrument. Most of the resources freed up have gone to supporting servicemen's families.”

Second, moving repayment of the remaining third from 2027–2029 to 2031–2033. The ministry will submit the bill in the autumn as part of the budget package; it will free almost 300 bn roubles over three years. Third, the same 100 bn in grants discussed at the council. Siluanov puts the 2027 budget effect of the regional stability programmes at «more than 800 bn roubles» — and immediately adds: “But that is not enough.”

So the regional deficit does not disappear. It moves onto the federal balance sheet and into the next decade. A five-year recovery programme is an admission that this is not a cash-flow gap but a structural deficit the federal government intends to cover every year.

Putin's instruction reads:

“I ask the government to determine the list of such federal subjects and to propose a set of mechanisms to balance their financial position. And also, together with the regions, to prepare and approve programmes for their financial and economic recovery, designed to run for up to five years.”

Why this is about paying for the war

Regional budgets pay allowances to war participants, utility costs and social spending. Siluanov says so directly: most of the resources freed by the 518 bn write-off went to supporting servicemen's families. Kommersant adds that commercial loans made up a third of regional debt as of 1 August. Part of this structure therefore rests on bank funding at market rates.

What this changes in our model

The indicator's value does not change. But two figures need explanation.

Our regional budgets indicator currently reads −1.616 trn roubles over a rolling year as of July. Siluanov says +170 bn. That is not a contradiction: his figure is cumulative over seven months, ours covers the full twelve. Russian regional budgets always look balanced until December, when the bulk of spending goes through, so the two numbers measure different stretches of time and do not conflict.

Second, federal money, not regional revenue, paid for the improvement reported by the ministry. Our indicator measures the outcome, not where the money came from. It will fall if federal transfers stop and hold if they continue. This also affects the federal deficit indirectly: write-offs and grants are federal spending.

The live state of all eight indicators is on the monitor.

What we do not know

There is no list of regions yet — the instruction has been given, and such lists usually follow some weeks later. The source of the 100 bn in grants is not named: the government reserve fund, or a reallocation within the existing schedule. It is not known whether the «more than 800 bn» effect is built into the 2027–2029 budget draft the ministry submits in September. The transcript of the meeting on kremlin.ru returned a 503 error throughout the preparation of this piece, so Putin's quote comes via RIA, while every Siluanov figure comes from the text of his report on the finance ministry's own site.