On 21 August the Russian finance ministry published on its own site an interview with Yevgeny Dombrovsky, director of its Department of Budget Policy and Strategic Planning, given to the journal Finansy. In it the ministry concedes in writing, for the first time, that the budget rule's current trajectory — cutting the base oil price by $1 a barrel a year to $55 by 2030 — is not enough. This is not a line dropped at a forum; it is the position of the responsible department, published a month before the 2027–2029 budget package is submitted.
What it actually says
The text is set out as questions and answers, and to the blunt question “Is that not enough?” — the department answers verbatim:
“The previously envisaged adaptation of the budget rule (lowering the base oil price by 1 US dollar per barrel a year, to 55 US dollars per barrel by 2030) requires a more significant trajectory of change.”
No new level is named. The figure under public discussion is $50 a barrel from 2027; Siluanov argued for lowering the cut-off price at the St Petersburg forum in June. The current trajectory is fixed in the Guidelines for Budget, Tax and Customs-Tariff Policy for 2026–2028.
The same text gives another relevant figure: tax expenditures — reliefs and exemptions — came to 14.2 trn roubles in 2025, roughly a third of all federal spending (42.9 trn).
Why the base price sets the spending limit
The base oil price decides how much oil and gas revenue counts as «base» and can be spent, and how much counts as «additional» and goes to the NWF. At low prices the rule runs the other way: the same number decides how many NWF assets must be sold to cover the shortfall.
That is the mechanism here. Cutting the base price from $59 to a notional $50 automatically shrinks permitted base spending. It is a spending cut announced in advance and written into the formula, rather than taken as a separate decision. A lower base price also means a smaller obligation to sell NWF assets in a bad year. The ministry is offering lower spending in exchange for a slower drain on the fund.
What this changes in our model
Nothing yet, and that is worth saying plainly. The statement carries no legal force: changing the base price requires amending the Budget Code, and the figure itself will first appear officially in the 2027–2029 Guidelines, which the ministry submits in September.
If adopted, the change would affect the liquid NWF, slowing the drain with a lag. It would also affect the deficit indirectly through the ceiling on permitted spending. It would not affect oil and gas revenue: our indicator measures the actual real level of revenue against 2021, while the base price is an accounting threshold. The change creates or destroys no real money.
What we do not know
No new base price is given — the text says only «a more significant trajectory». It does not say whether the cut would come with tax rises. Nor is it clear whether the 14.2 trn in tax reliefs is mentioned as the next source of savings or merely as a measure of the scale.