Fresh numbers from Rosstat: power generation moved from +0.8% to -1.4% (data through Jun 2026). Electricity use tracks real activity with little room for cosmetics.
What exactly changed
The previous reading was +0.8% (May 2026); the new one is -1.4%. The line we treat as trouble — registered in advance and never moved retroactively — is < -5%. This is a step toward it. Full history of this series, every raw source fragment and every parse failure: the indicator page.
What it does to the countdown
- The headline runway stays at 6–7 months.
- The verdict is unchanged: Single class-2 signal — not enough to trigger.
The live state of the whole chain — which link is burning and how many months the buffer holds — is always on the monitor.
Why trust this number
- It comes from a primary source: Rosstat — and we keep the verbatim fragment the number was parsed from. The exact published table (XLSX): direct link.
- Forecasts of a Russian collapse have historically fired too early. That's why we publish ranges, never dates, and keep our own month-by-month record — including misses — on the track-record page.
- One reading is a data point, not a verdict.
About The Fuse
The Fuse tracks one question weekly: how long can Russia pay for its war? Seven links of the war-financing chain — oil money, borrowing, reserves, deficit, bankruptcies, prices, physical activity — each measured from primary sources with registered thresholds. Right now the fire is at link 2 of 7 (Funding channel — OFZ auctions), and the liquid reserves cover about 6–7 months of orderly war financing. See how the model works and every indicator plotted.