New data from the Central Bank of Russia show M2 money supply growth slowing from +13.1% to +12.9% (data through August 2026). M2 growth is our printing-press detector: monetized deficits can hide behind healthy-looking auctions, but not behind the money stock.
What exactly changed
The previous reading was +13.1% (July 2026); the new one is +12.9%. Our trouble line, registered in advance and never moved retroactively, is > +30%. This reading moves away from it. The full series history, every raw source fragment and every parse failure are on the indicator page.
The central bank's estimate, updated on 4 September, puts M2 at 137.3 trillion roubles on 1 September, 1.2% higher than in July. One detail belongs on the record: the bank now shows July at 13.0%, not the 13.1% we stored when we read the same page a month ago. Its table therefore records this month's fall as 13.0% to 12.9%. Our series preserves the figures published at the time, so it shows 13.1% to 12.9%. The revision is 0.1 percentage point and changes nothing in the model.
What it changes overall
- The verdict is unchanged: No trigger.
The current state of all eight indicators, and the single 0–100 index built from them, is always on the monitor.
Why trust this number
- It comes from a primary source: the Central Bank of Russia — and we keep the verbatim fragment from which we parsed the number.
- Forecasts of a Russian collapse have historically sounded the alarm too early. That's why we publish ranges, never dates, and keep our own month-by-month record — including misses — on the track-record page.
- One reading is a data point, not a verdict.
About The Fuse
The Fuse tracks one question: how long can Russia pay for its war? It measures eight indicators against thresholds registered in advance: oil and gas revenue, the liquid NWF, the federal deficit, regional budgets, unpaid invoices, inflation, the money supply and rail freight. All come from primary sources and feed a single 0–100 strength index. It now stands at 47 (STRESS). See how the model works and every indicator plotted.