Alongside the federal government, Russia's regions run their own budgets. When their consolidated balance weakens, the strain can end up back on the federal government's doorstep. That is why the monitor calls regional budgets the second front of the budget.
How the number is built
Appendix 6 of the finance ministry's monthly report gives the consolidated balance of every regional budget in Russia, added together. Like the federal deficit, the figure is published cumulatively from the start of each year, so it is de-cumulated and rolled into a trailing twelve-month total. The figure is kept in rubles and not deflated, because both registered anchors are money in the same units — there is no rate-versus-level question to resolve here the way there is for inflation.
Where the anchors come from
100 marks the 2021 surplus of ₽0.66 trillion, the last full pre-war year, when regional budgets in aggregate ran a small surplus. 0 marks a deficit of ₽2.5 trillion, roughly 1.1% of GDP. Both were fixed before any reading; the reasoning is on the methodology page.
Why regional finances matter to the federal picture
A widening regional deficit can put additional pressure on the same federal budget already being tracked through the deficit and oil and gas revenue. That is the limited sense in which regional budgets form a second front rather than a separate one.
What a widening regional deficit does not mean
A weaker regional reading does not by itself say which regions are under the most strain, or why — the figure is a national aggregate, not a region-by-region breakdown. What it adds to the monitor is a second view of budgetary pressure below the federal level, read alongside the seven other indicators rather than in isolation.