Oil and gas budget revenues sit at the start of the financing chain this monitor tracks: when they weaken, every indicator downstream comes under added strain. That is why the monitor calls oil and gas revenue the driver.
Why a level, not a year-on-year rate
A year-on-year growth rate answers only how revenue compares with the same month in the previous year. A rebound from a weak year can therefore look healthy even while the level remains below its pre-war point. The monitor instead reads oil and gas revenue as a level against a fixed pre-war baseline.
How the number is built
The finance ministry publishes oil and gas budget revenue cumulatively from the start of each year, so each month's contribution is calculated as the difference from the month before — the same de-cumulation used for the budget deficit. Those monthly figures are then deflated by Rosstat's own consumer-price index into 2021 prices and summed over the trailing twelve months. Inflation alone therefore does not raise the comparison with the pre-war level.
Where the anchors come from
100 marks the 2021 total in real terms — ₽9 027 billion in 2021 prices, the last full pre-war year. 0 marks half of that figure. Both were fixed in advance of any reading; the reasoning behind the specific cutoff is on the methodology page.
What falling oil revenue sets in motion
When oil and gas revenue weakens, any resulting deficit has to be financed through domestic borrowing, the National Wealth Fund, or routes that can show up in the money supply. A weaker revenue reading does not determine how the rest of the chain will respond. The monitor tracks the other seven indicators to show where the added strain is absorbed rather than treating the driver as a verdict on its own.