Arrears / bankruptcies (transmission to real sector)
● HOLDINGPlain-language label: “Businesses going under” — position 5 of 7 in the causal chain: transmission into the real economy: unpaid bills become bankruptcies.
CURRENT VALUE0.74×data 2026 Q2
REGISTERED THRESHOLD> 1.3×registered 2026-08-14 · unchanged
CLASS 1 — HARD TO REPAINTFormed by thousands of independent filings and court decisions — Moscow can suppress the channel (visibly: a moratorium, closing publication), but cannot quietly repaint the number. A firing class-1 indicator can trigger alone.
History vs the trouble line
line: reconstructed monthly history (backtest inputs) · dots: real fetches · gaps stay gaps
Observation history
| DATE OF DATA | VALUE | RAW FRAGMENT (VERBATIM) | SOURCE / FETCHED |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q2 | 0.74 | «2026-Q2: 1904 company bankruptcy openings vs 2021 quarterly avg 2574 -> index 0.74; intents: creditor 5610, debtor 868» | download.fedresurs.ru · 2026-08-16 00:38 UTC |
| 2026-Q2 | 0.74 | «2026-Q2: 1904 company bankruptcy openings vs 2021 quarterly avg 2574 -> index 0.74; intents: creditor 5610, debtor 868» | download.fedresurs.ru · 2026-08-14 18:10 UTC |
| 2026-Q2 | 0.74 | «2026-Q2: 1904 company bankruptcy openings vs 2021 quarterly avg 2574 -> index 0.74; intents: creditor 5610, debtor 868» | download.fedresurs.ru · 2026-08-14 18:09 UTC |
Parse-failure history
When our parser can't extract a value, we log the failure instead of guessing. Failures never silently reuse the previous value.
No parse failures recorded.
Availability events
None recorded.